Ukrainian potato sector: current situation and concerns

This year's situation in potatosector is difficult throughout Ukraine. Traditionally, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv and Sumy regions have always had good harvests, but this year there is a shortage of potatoes even there. In the west of Ukraine, in particular in Lviv and Volyn regions, the potato yield is sufficient but this is not enough to cover the demand of the entire country. The yield has halved compared to last year: from 35-60 t/ha to 15-25 t/ha. High cost of production, shortage of labor and lack of proper storage facilities also complicate the situation.

There is half as much potato as last year

Weather conditions are one of the main factors affecting the yield of potatoes. In 2023, many regions of Ukraine faced abnormal heat and a lack of precipitation, which significantly reduced yields. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the average yield in some regions fell to 10-15 t/ha, while under normal conditions it can reach 25-30 t/ha.

According to the State Statistics Service, in 2024, potatoes were planted on an area of ​​about 1 million hectares in Ukraine. However, the yield has more than halved compared to last year.

This year turned out to be difficult for potato growers due to unfavourable weather conditions. Frosts in May damaged crops, rains in June-July led to excessive moisture, and heat in August dried the soil. The harvest was uneven, with a large number of small potatoes. Plant protection costs also increased, due to late potato blight and Alternaria. Due to the heat and rains, the soil in some areas formed a dense crust, which made the process of harvesting and sorting difficult. This led to additional labour and equipment costs.

"This year, growing potatoes turned out to be difficult due to unfavourable weather conditions. Frosts, rains, and heat have led to uneven harvests and increased plant protection costs. The main problems arise with the storage of potatoes - for this you need to create the right conditions, including the right temperature and ventilation. There is a lack of modern ventilated warehouses in Ukraine, which makes long-term storage difficult. Due to these difficulties, the price of potatoes will increase this year and will probably remain high until the next season," said Ihor Shkurko, director of Chernihivelitkartoplya.

According to Serhiy Rybalko, the owner of the "Adelaida" farm, it is still too early to talk about this year's yield, as the first frosts have been promised for the past few days. However, of course, the situation is worse than last year.

"The harvesting is more difficult this year, mainly affecte by the weather conditions. In the irrigated fields we have a slightly better situation and better yield than in the non-irrigated fields. However, the difference is not too significant. Currently, we still have 20% of potatoes in the ground, so we are not talking about yield yet. Frosts are quite possible these days, so this can also make adjustments," Serhiy Rybalko added.

What prices is expected further?

In April next year the price of potatoes may reach UAH 60/kg. Since the vast majority of products will be imported. This opinion was expressed by the analyst of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Maksym Hopka.

He notes that the cost of the product will depend on the markets from where potato is imported, such as Egypt, Poland and EU countries. However, additional costs for logistics and temporary storage, as well as importers' markups, should be taken into account. As a result, this may not contribute to the further growth of prices, but it will not lead to their significant reduction.

"In general, the peak price of all vegetables depends on the month and period of their cultivation. But if we are talking about potatoes, prices here really could not fall seasonally. This is due to the fact that there was a drought, the yield is low, and harvesting season is still ongoing, which is not typical. Usually during this period there was a maximum supply and the price was much lower," the analyst notes.

One of the key factors affecting productivity is the use of modern technologies and innovations. Ihor Shkurko is convinced that farmers who implement the latest methods of soil treatment, use high-quality seed varieties and use modern plant protection products achieve significantly higher yields. But he adds that growing potatoes will never be cheap. Potatoes, he is sure, will be expensive next year as well.

"Recently, the cost of equipment for growing and harvesting potatoes, as well as the price of agricultural machinery, have increased a lot. And weather conditions add costs. Now, just one planter costs €150,000. In addition to the planter, the set of necessary equipment also includes harvesters, sorting lines and warehouse equipment. Also, significant costs are associated with the purchase or transportation of elite seeds from Europe in order to develop own production. Therefore, potatoes will not be cheaper next year either. Currently, I predict that this year the price of potatoes will exceed the price of bananas for the first time," added Ihor Shkurko.

This year, due to weather conditions, the costs of fighting potato diseases have increased significantly. The crop protection agents of well-known global brands are more expensive, than local ones, however more efficient.

"Usually we teat potatoes against diseases in August, although preventive measures began in June. This became a necessity due to the increased risk of disease, and we decided not to risk with cheaper alternatives. Therefore, it added potato production costs," the farmer noted.

"Now the price of potatoes is UAH 20/kg, and in supermarkets - up to UAH 25/kg, depending on the quality. However, I believe that the predicted wholesale price of UAH 40-45/kg is overstated. But the final figures will be known after the harvest," Serhiy Rybalko added.

Potato storages are important component in the production costs and price

Currently, there is a lack of storages in Ukraine and it is difficult to store products. If in past years there were expectations for state support programmes for construction of vegetable storages, now, due to the war and a significant deficit in the budget, it is unlikely to happen in the coming years.

"In previous season the vast of the potato harvest was sold before the cold weather. This also affected the growth of prices for potatoes in winter. If you remember, the price of potatoes was quite high in February and January. Closer to the onset of spring, it also increased. This is because there was no capacity to store this product," Maksym Hopka said at the beginning of September.

First of all, the state should be interested in the construction of high-quality vegetable storage facilities, because it is an element of food security - Ihor Shkurko is sure of this. A state program should work, as in other countries.

"Even if the harvest is good, it must be stored somewhere. For this, it is necessary to organize good ventilation and cooling for potato. And these costs are high - UAH 14 million must be spent on the construction of such a vegetable storage," adds Ihor Shkurko.

So those who do not have efficient storage facilities will be forced to sell potatoes early in the season, to prevent harvest loss, being unable to store it long time till the next season.

According to Ihor Shkurko, weather conditions also caused a lot of soil clods and as a result the damage to the tubers. Therefore, after harvesting, potatoes need time to "cure" before long-time storage.