Which regions of Ukraine will suffer the greatest losses due to climate change? - World Bank Report

KYIV. Dec 29 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Cherkasy, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Vinnytsia regions will suffer the greatest losses due to climate change, this is the result of a World Bank study on the impact of climate change on key sectors of the Ukrainian economy, initiated by the Ministry of Ecology.

"The most significant loss of household income and the largest increase in poverty and inequality due to a decline in a cost of agricultural production is projected in Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Luhansk and Zhytomyr regions," according to a summary of the study released on Tuesday.

According to it, mainly two scenarios were studied – RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. They assume a global temperature rise by 2.4 degrees Celsius (with carbon abatement) and by 4.3 degrees Celsius (without sufficient control measures) until 2100, respectively.

In accordance with RCP 8.5, analysts expect a decrease in yields in Ukraine of barley, corn and sunflower by 10-30% compared to 2010 in 2030-2050.

At the same time, the report predicts an increase in winter wheat yields by 20-40% by the middle of the century compared to the base period of 2010, mainly in the northern and northwestern parts of the country.

The report clarifies that the unpredictability of precipitation patterns, especially after 2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario, creates a need to pay more attention to predicted changes at the local level.

On the other hand, experts note that climate-balanced water management strategies can increase overall crop yields in Ukraine by 20-40%, including up to 80% for corn and up to 40-80% for sunflower. According to the study, the annual benefit from maintaining optimal water balance could be $264-504 million. The largest gains from good water management will come from corn as a critical export commodity. They are valued at $92.7 million.