Key Insights from the OECD's Economic Survey of Poland: implications for the food and agricultural sector
On February 4, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has presented the Economic Survey of Poland. In this article, we present the main findings of the report, and we describe the relevant messages for the food- and agricultural sector.
Main findings of the Report
Every two years, the OECD reviews the economy of one of its member countries and sometimes partner countries. A review always includes the macroeconomic screening but also in parts requested by a country.
The main findings of the OECD for the economy of Poland are:
- After significant increases in spending on health, social services, and defense, a consistent fiscal adjustment is necessary to lower the deficit and prevent excessive demand, while also tackling the rising costs associated with an aging population.
- The effectiveness of the healthcare system and overall health outcomes can be enhanced through various reforms that focus on improving incentives, staffing, and preventive measures.
- While emissions from the energy sector have decreased, more rapid policy action in the energy, transportation, and housing sectors is essential to achieve climate goals.
- To ensure ongoing convergence and productivity growth, it is important to enhance skills and lessen the regulatory burden in the services sector.
Relevant messages for food and agriculture:
Inflation
After the inflation shock (2021/2023) period (from March 2021 to March 2024, the average price level rose by about 32%, although food or housing fees jumped even more), which affected the economy's activity, it returned to growth in mid-2023, supported by trade and public investment, as well as moderate food and energy inflation.
Headline inflation is projected to rise to 5.4% in 2025, when the remaining energy support measures are phased out, and then fall to 3.8% in 2026. As for agri-food prices, almost everything is projected to rise, especially products that are a staple of the Polish diet, i.e. meat, flour, bread, fruits, vegetables. Similarly, in terms of energy prices, it is unlikely that the Polish public will pay less than in previous years. Real GDP is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025 and by 3.3% in 2026 (similar forecasts come from the National Bank of Poland - NBP).
Trade and investment in Poland
Trade supported economic growth, despite a deteriorating external environment. Poland saw its terms of trade fall by 3.6% in 2022 due to a depreciating exchange rate and higher prices for imported fuel and food (in the agri-food sector, this was also visible due to additional increases in fertilizer, transport and labor costs). Imports rose strongly due to higher energy and food prices in 2022, although weaker consumption also affected import volumes.
Poland's trade openness is growing, which is helping productivity convergence, and exporting companies are experiencing faster productivity growth than average. In addition, more than a third of domestic value added is driven by foreign demand. Nevertheless, at around 10%, the share of high-tech exports is moderate. Poland’s industrial policy has been built around attracting foreign investors to ‘special economic zones’ with infrastructure, grants and tax incentives, targeting specific sectors, regions or value chains, and carried out mainly by the investment promotion agency (PAIH).
The link to the report can be found here: OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2025 | OECD
Labour markets
Until now, the labor market has been relatively resilient. While the Polish economy has grown, the working-age population has steadily declined since 2010, with small declines offset by labor migrants. Starting in 2022 and the influx of workers from Ukraine, employment levels have remained essentially unchanged.
The labor market remains tight, which increases the cost of hiring and firing, and may partly explain why some companies stockpiled labor during the economic downturn. Migration has helped address labor shortages (the share of migrants has increased sixfold since 2015 to 1.13 million registered foreign workers by the end of 2023) These workers are mainly from Ukraine and Belarus. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, many Ukrainian men working in Poland have left their jobs in agriculture, construction and manufacturing to return to Ukraine. At the same time, about one million Ukrainians, mostly women and children, have come to Poland (two-thirds of the adults have found work, mostly in services). On the other hand, the Polish labor market is beginning to have a problem due to the fact that many Ukrainian refugees have left or are planning to leave Poland in the near future for Western Europe.
The agri-food sector is one of the industries suffering most from labor shortages. This applies to almost every branch of production. The stream of workers from Ukraine willing to work in agriculture is depleting, so other countries such as Nepal, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Pakistan and Kazakhstan are becoming popular.
Health care and food
Nearly 60% of all adults in Poland were overweight in 2019, above the EU average. This was more pronounced among men. Overweight adults and related diet-related diseases lead to poorer outcomes in many areas and higher health care expenditures. Simulations suggest that Poland will be one of the worst affected countries. Such conditions are estimated to shorten life expectancy by 3.9 years between 2020 and 2050, reducing GDP levels by 4.3% due to lower employment and productivity. On the other hand, it is also important to note some positive trends and an increase in physical activity (although compared to other OECD countries, Poland compares quite unfavorably), especially among Poles in the 30-45 age bracket. Poles are becoming more conscious consumers, are more likely to use preventive medicine and research, and care about physical activity.
Prevention policies that aim to improve nutrition tend to have a high return on investment and can reduce potential costs (OECD, 2019b). Poland has set targets for adult and child obesity in successive National Health Programs. It has developed national food and dietary guidelines to help people make better dietary choices. The National Institute of Hygiene and the Institute of Food and Nutrition are two key national institutes that are supported by universities like the Warsaw University of Life Sciences, conduct research on obesity and related issues such as nutrition, and provide data to support the Ministry of Health. Poland participates in the EU's fruit and vegetable program, and foods high in sugar, fat and salt have been banned from school menus since 2015.
In 2021 Poland introduced a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, as well as a tax on beverages containing caffeine/taurine. The percentage of people consuming sugary drinks on a daily basis fell by more than half between 2018 and 2022.
To read the report and learn more about the situation in Poland, we recommend following the link to the report's press release page: Poland should strengthen the public finances and continue improving healthcare, says OECD.
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Thanks for your cooperation to Jasper Dalhuisen, the Agricultural Counselor at the Permanent Representation of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris.