Hungary has seen its hottest year. Hotter ones still are likely to come.

2024 has been the hottest year in Hungary

The Hungarian meteorological service (HungaroMet) reported that 2024 has been the hottest year in Hungary since 1901. The mean yearly temperature was 12.91°C, which was 2.1°C higher than the 1901-2020 multiannual average, 10.72°C.

Before 2024, the hottest year was the previous one, 2023, which 2024 surpassed with a 0.7°C higher mean temperature.

Both spatially as well as temporally, temperature averages differed. In most of the plains, averages were around 13°C, in the south of the Hungarian Plains, it was closer to 13.5°C, and near the southern border, it was close to 14°C. In Transdanubia, temperatures were between 12-13°C, and average tempereatures under 10°C were measured only in the highest mountains.

February saw the largest deviation from the mean, with a 7°C higher temperature. March was also the mildest since the first half of the 20th century. What made the heat more drastic was the water shortage. After 2023, which had more precipitation, 2024 was another drought year. The most rainfall occured in September, which was 63% higher than the average. The torrential rains in the early fall were a sharp change after the scorching hot and dry summer.

The higest precipitation, 820.3 mm was measured at Kékestető, the highest point of Hungary (1014 m), in the Mátra mountains, in Heves county. The lowest value was registered at the Debrecen International Airport, in Debrecen, Hajdú-Bihar county.

Agrárágazat.hu reports that the changed climate is causing more and more damage to agriculture.

The frequency of weather extremes is increasing. Mild winters cause the proliferation of pests and pathogens. The fresh shoots and buds of trees that start growing in warm Februaries are destroyed by cold snaps in March, April or even May. Regular, severe, and sometimes total frost damage completely destroys the crops. The trees in orchards and bee populations cannot rest without prolonged, deep frosts in the winter. Crops maturing in the fields are withered by weeks or even months of drought. The sudden rains after the droughts can also destroy plants on over-cultivated, eroded soils and further damage the soil itself too. These trends are not slowing, and the coming years will likely be still hotter.

Decline in the productivity of agriculture

Agrárágazat.hu reports that in recent years, the productivity of Hungary’s agriculture industry has been declining, which will eventually lead to market share losses and rising domestic prices. The portal based their report on Eurostat’s agricultural income indicators dataset.

Similar to Romania and Malta, last year saw the largest decline in agricultural productivity since the EU accession in 2004, according to the portal. According to Eurostat data, this decline was 15.5% in 2024. The largest decline was in Romania (17%), while Malta performed slightly better than Hungary with a decline of 11.4%.

In Hungary, productivity has been falling for the fourth consecutive year, the data shows. Agricultural productivity is crucial for both the profitability of farms and the prices of produced raw materials. This greatly affects competitiveness. The portal also cited an analysis by the Hungarian National Bank (MNB), which also acknowledged the trend.

MNB’s analysis concluded that, while the rise in global crop prices until the spring of 2022 did not cause a significant price increase in Hungary, the rise in energy prices brought to light the structural weaknesses of the domestic economy. Due to low productivity and high energy intensity, domestic food inflation significantly diverged from the region from mid-2022. According to the MNB, structural problems in the domestic economy include not only low efficiency but also high energy intensity, weak productivity, and competitiveness deficiencies.

Better year for the food industry?

Agrárszektor.hu reports that Hungary’s food industry is characterized by cautious optimism in the beginning of 2025.

According to the portal, the sector's players are expecting the growth of consumption this year. Although meeting sustainability criteria may still be a challenge, last year's tenders could help with this.

Agrárszektor.hu once again interviewed Attila Vörös, the executive director of the Responsible Food Manufacturers Association (FÉSZ). According to the stakeholder, the year 2024 could end well according to statistics, with a 4-5% growth possible in the sector based on the latest statistics.

However, the expert noted that this growth is mainly considered good compared to the weaker base of 2023, as the sector's performance is more comparable to the 2022 level. Prices and food inflation are also expected to be more predictable this year, said Attila Vörös. However, this does not mean that an easy year is expected. Major changes occured on the global markets recently, like the drastic increase in the price of cocoa, and these will affect Hungary’s food industry.

Tamás Éder, the president of the Hungarian Meat Industry Association (Hússzövetség), also spoke to the portal and confirmed that after the extremely weak performance of the food industry in 2023, it showed modest growth last year, but still did not reach the 2022 production level. The expert says that the industry hopes to approach 2022 production levels in 2025. Both domestic and foreign demand is expected to increase. However, both the weather and also, potential livestock diseases, might hold unpleasant surprises throughout the year.

Food inflation continued in December

Based on the latest data from the Central Statistical Office (KSH), in December 2024, consumer prices were on average 4.6% higher than a year earlier and 0.5% higher than the previous month. In 2024, prices increased by an average of 3.7% compared to the previous year. Food prices rose by 5.4% over 12 months compared to December 2023.

The production of food, beverages, and tobacco products, which accounts for 13% of the manufacturing industry, decreased by 2.1% compared to the same month of the previous year, with both domestic and foreign sales declining.

Production fell in nine of the thirteen manufacturing industry sub-sectors, with the largest decrease of 12.4% in the manufacture of electrical equipment. The largest sub-sector, vehicle manufacturing, saw an 8.0% decrease in output. Production volume increased in four sub-sectors, ranging from 0.3% to 4.0%, most notably in the manufacture of food, beverages, and tobacco products.

The production of food, beverages, and tobacco products, which accounts for 13% of the manufacturing industry, decreased by 2.1% compared to the same month of the previous year, with both domestic and foreign sales declining.

The largest of the food processing sub-sector, meat processing, preservation, and production of meat products, which represents 23%, increased by 2.0% compared to November of the previous year. Production also expanded in six sub-sectors, ranging from 1.1% to 24%, most significantly in the small-scale fish processing and preservation, and least in feed manufacturing.