Challenges for the Polish retail sector
Polish retail sector is increasingly vocal about their concerns about the future. The main sources of concern are the rising costs of doing business, including the increase in the minimum wage (by 8.5% since January) and uncertainty related to inflation, as well as threats related to upcoming legal regulations.
Cautious optimism
Some experts see reasons for cautious optimism. Compared to Europe, the Polish economy and consumption levels are still doing well, and the interest rate cuts announced for this year may provide relief to consumers by increasing their willingness to spend money.
However, Renata Juszkiewicz, president of the Polish Organization of Trade and Distribution (POHiD), which brings together the largest chains of stores with foreign capital, believes that it is difficult to expect a significant improvement in consumer sentiment in the near future. In her opinion, maintaining price competitiveness will remain a key challenge for retail chains this year.
The representative of large retailers points out that companies are investing primarily in the development of sales networks, technological transformation and the modernization of logistics infrastructure. The integration of sales channels is also becoming a key direction - combining stationary stores with online offers, because customers expect it. Process automation, although expensive, is to help retail companies increase their efficiency.
Legislative changes
This year, trade will face a number of legislative complications, led by the deposit system. The deposit system will force retail chains to invest hundreds of millions of zlotys, including the purchase of equipment, the development of logistics and the creation of an efficient operating system.
Changes will also occur in other areas. The amendment to the act on non-working days, signed by the president at the end of 2024, means a ban on trading on Christmas Eve, but at the same time the introduction of an additional, third shopping Sunday in December.
The act on preventing food waste, prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture, may also prove important for trade. The new regulations provide for penalties for stores in the amount of 50 groszy for each kilogram of wasted food.
Cautious growth
According to POHiD data, the value of the FMCG market (sales of fast-moving consumer goods) in 2024 reached PLN 435 billion (+ 5.4% y/y), and the dynamics in 2025 is also expected to be around 5%.
In Polish modern trade, discount stores rule, which in 2023 had a 37% share in the value of the entire retail food market. Much smaller sales are generated by supermarkets with a share of around 16%, and hypermarkets have a slightly smaller but still significant share. On the other hand, traditional trade is mainly local grocery stores, which in 2023 had a 31% market share, which places them in second place after discount stores.
Source: Puls biznesu