Poland: beef market
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that in 2021 global beef production may be 1.6% higher than in 2020 and reach 61.5 million tonnes.
Global situation
The development of production will be supported by a revival in demand for beef as a result of restoring the functioning of the catering and hotel industries. In Brazil, production is expected to increase by 3%, to 10.4 million tons, in China - by 4%, to 7 million tons, in India - by 6.4%, to 4 million tons, and in the United States - by 1, 8%, up to 12.6 million tonnes. Lower production (by 3%) is forecast in Australia, due to the process of rebuilding the herd of cattle after many years of drought, and in Argentina (by 4%).
Production in the EU
In the European Union (EU-27) in December 2020, the cattle population amounted to 76.2 million units and was 1% lower than in the previous year. The largest decrease was recorded in the two countries with the largest population, i.e. in France (by 3%, to 17.6 million units) and Germany (by 3%, to 11.3 million units). Among the countries classified as significant EU beef producers, a slight increase in the cattle stock occurred: in Spain (by 0.5%, up to 6.6 million heads), Italy (by 0.4%, up to 6.4 million heads) and Poland (by 0.3%, to 6.3 million units).
The consequence of the continued decline in the EU cattle population is less industrial slaughter. In the period of January-February 2021, they amounted to 1,034,000 tonnes, 10% less than last year. Rising production costs (mainly feed) have an impact on the decrease in profitability of breeding, which results in a reduction of the EU stock of beef cattle. At the same time, the maintenance of certain restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic in many EU countries in the first half of this year causes limited demand from the HoReCa sector. Taking into account the above-mentioned conditions, the European Commission forecasts a further decline in beef production in the EU-27. In 2021, it may be 1% lower than in 2020 and reach 6.8 million tonnes.
In Poland, in December 2020, the cattle population amounted to 6.3 million units, 0.3% more than in the previous year. An increase in the number of cattle by 2.5% was recorded in the case of young cattle aged 1-2 years, and a decrease was recorded in the number of calves (by 0.7%) and cattle aged 2 years and more (by 0.5%). According to preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office, in the period January-March 2021, the volume of industrial slaughter of cattle (in live weight) amounted to 263 thousand tonnes and was 6% lower than last year. The level of domestic beef production by the end of 2021 will be influenced by the epidemic situation in the country and in the world related to the coronavirus pandemic. Loosening the restrictions and opening the HoReCa industry, especially during the summer holiday season, will generate greater demand for beef products both domestically and worldwide. At the same time, relatively high, as compared to the previous years, purchase prices of live cattle will stimulate the growth of interest in the breeding of beef cattle. Increasing production costs, mainly the prices of feed and protein components, may be a factor negatively affecting the profitability of breeding.
Exports
In the first quarter of 2021, 173,000 jobs were exported from the EU-27 to third countries. tonnes of beef and veal products (in carcass equivalent), by 1% more than in the same period of 2020. The beef assortment from the EU was directed, among others, to: Israel, Hong Kong and the Philippines (about 13 thousand tonnes each), Ghana (12 thousand tonnes), Bosnia and Herzegovina (9 thousand tonnes), Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria and Lebanon (approx. 8 thousand tonnes each). Import of beef assortment to the EU-27 countries in the three months of 2021 was 10% lower than in the previous year and amounted to 52 thousand. tone. Beef products were imported to the EU mainly from: Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina.
In the first quarter of 2021, Poland was the third EU beef exporter to third countries, after Ireland and Spain. However, most of the volume of beef assortment (85%) exported from Poland was directed to the EU countries. In the first three months of 2021, 107 thousand. tonnes of livestock, meat and beef and veal products (carcass equivalent), by 11% less than last year. Revenues from the export of beef products decreased by 10% and amounted to EUR 357 million (PLN 1.6 billion). The subject of export was mainly beef (90% share), which was exported 83 thousand. tonnes (in product weight), 14% less than in the same period of 2020. The recipients of beef were mainly the EU-27 countries (86% share in the volume), including: Italy and Germany (16 thousand tonnes each) , 19% each), the Netherlands (7,000 tonnes, 9%), and from outside the EU - Great Britain (4,000 tonnes, 4%), Israel (3,000 tonnes, 3%), Japan (1,000 tonnes). tons, 2%). Imports of beef and veal products to Poland, including mainly meat and livestock, were in the first quarter of 2021 lower by 4% than in the previous year and amounted to 12 thousand. tons (in carcass equivalent).
Prices
From the beginning of 2021, the prices of live cattle are subject to slight monthly fluctuations, but they remain at an unprecedented high level, which is on average 6.5% higher than a year ago. This is due to, inter alia, persistent demand for beef (despite the limited activity of catering establishments), with smaller supplies of livestock to slaughterhouses. The high price level is also due to rising production costs associated with high feed prices. According to GUS data, in April this year. domestic suppliers for total cattle (excluding calves) obtained on average PLN 7.19 / kg, 5% more than in March this year. and 17.5% more than last year. The price of young cattle was PLN 7.30 / kg, 5.5% higher than in the previous month and 17% higher than in April 2020.
Source: Biuletyn Informacyjny KOWR