Hungary: Lower wheat yields and rising food prices will soon make the effects of the summer drought felt

Rising global cereal prices driving up prices of Hungarian wheat and corn

Agrárágazat.hu reports that due to trends on the global market, Hungarian cereal prices are increasing. In Russia, bad harvest results are eroding the country’s export potential, although the country is currently maintaining the same export volume as in 2023. The United States has seen high demand for American cereal. Prices are increasing in Ukraine too. These factors are  increasing the price of Hungarian wheat as well.

Although the price of milling wheat is currently around €187.27, Agrárágazat.hu writes, there is every chance it could reach €199.74, especially if the weak exchange rate of the Hungarian Forint persists. According to the Market Price Information System of the Institute of Agricultural Economics (AKI), feed wheat is 17% more expensive, and milling wheat is 12% more expensive this year.

Pénzcentrum.hu reports that while agricultural producers suffered from the drought, the rising prices will in turn lead to price increases in grocery stores, and bread is not the only product that will become more expensive. Corn, table grapes, various fruits, wine, and even fish grown in domestic fisheries has seen a decline in supply and price increases are to follow.

2024 harvest falls behind last year’s yields

Agrárszektor.hu reports that this year’s harvest yields were lower than those of 2023. Of the 5.1 million hectares of farmland in the country (which is 55% of the total area), 81% was used for arable farming, 16% was used as grassland, and 2.8% was used as vineyards and orchards. This year, the trend of wheat being the dominant crop continued, with a production area of 922 thousand hectares. Among the four main cereals, the harvested area decreased for almost all compared to the previous year, primarily due to the expansion of industrial crops, temporary grasslands, and fallow lands. This year, farmers left 140 thousand hectares fallow. Corn was grown on 906.8 thousand hectares.

Based on the data available so far, wheat, rye, oats, and both spring and winter barley were harvested from over 1.25 million hectares this year. So far, 5.3 million tons of wheat, a total of 1.5 million tons of spring and winter barley, 72 thousand tons of rye, and 78 thousand tons of oats have been produced. Among mean yields, wheat stands out with an average of 5.8 tons per hectare compared to the other cereals. However, in the case of wheat, quality issues are also a concern, which will likely contribute to rising prices in the fall.

Rapeseed farming continues to decline

Agrárszektor.hu reports that, based on current figures, the rapeseed production area will not reach 130 thousand hectares in this season. In comparison, in 2018, rapeseed was cultivated on over 330 thousand hectares. The decline has been gradual. In 2021, rapeseed was planted on only 209 thousand hectares, representing a 20% decrease compared to the previous year. The extreme  drought further exacerbated the situation, leading to only 180 thousand hectares being sown in the fall of 2022, resulting in another 16% decline.

One of the reasons for the decline of rapeseed is plant protection issues. Another reason is market troubles.

This year, the summer drought and subsequent heavy rains in the sowing period early in the fall made the situation difficult.

Dairy industry: Price caps and pandemic changed Hungarian milk consumption habits

Pénzcentrum.hu reported on the price changes of various milk products in Hungary, showcasing how consumers turned towards cheaper UHT milk instead of fresh ESL milk.

In February 2023, the price of 1 liter of 2.8% fat UHT milk was only €0.75, while the price of the same fat-content ESL (fresh) milk was around €1.41. Later, the price of UHT milk increased after the price cap was lifted. By September, the prices of UHT and fresh milk had nearly aligned, with UHT milk priced at €1.13 and fresh ESL milk at €1.19 per liter.

According to the Dairy Product Council, the pandemic and price caps had a significant impact on consumer habits. Due to its low prices, the popularity of UHT milk increased. Meanwhile, the share of imported milk in the Hungarian market is steadily increasing, especially for boxed milk in packages under 2 liters, a significant portion of which is used in public catering and the HORECA sector. According to the Dairy Product Council, the total volume of milk consumption has remained relatively stable over the past five years, but there has been a significant shift in the demand for different types of milk.

Mysterious illness spreading in deer populations

Recently, a scientific article was published by Hungarian researchers on a mysterious, inflammatory illness which attacks the antlers of various deer species, which has been an increasing issue in Hungary’s forests. The illness is colloquially known as “antler base rot” in the country, however, professionals are calling it a chronic, deforming inflammation around the antler base of various deer species. The disease affects fallow deer, roe deer, and red deer as well.

Hungarian hunters first found specimens with deformed antlers 25-26 years ago. The disease is now spreading fast. Initially, experts suspected that some kind of bacteria was causing the mysterious symptoms of the disease. However, the National Animal Health Institute has shown that this is not the case. Through the collaboration of several Hungarian research centers and universities, scientists have concluded that the disease may be the outcome of the combined effects of several mycotoxins, leading to immunosuppression. This can disrupt the bone-epithelial connection, cause liver and kidney damage, testicular inflammation, and hormonal disorders in the affected animals. The various mycotoxins have already been detected in the livers of 72 pregnant fallow deer does and their calves from seven Hungarian forests, the article reports.