Rising wheat, record maize yields but falling rapeseed yield is expected

In Hungary, according to the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), 969 thousand hectares are intended for autumn wheat, 53% of which has already been sawn by mid-October. The dehydrated soil significantly prevented the late summer sowing of rapeseed in Europe. This increased the possibility of farmers in Hungary to change to wheat instead of rapeseed with expecting a more attractive price. According to the International Grains Council this will result in 2019/2020 - for the first time in four years – in an expansion of the wheat area (worldwide). Tallage market research company in France predicts that winter wheat will be harvested in the EU in the summer of 2019 on by 6% bigger area than this year, on 24.3 million hectares.

While the long-lasting summer drought had a negative impact on corn yield per hectare in France - the EU's largest maize producer -, and so yields reduced by 20% this year, only 11.6 million tons of maize, in Romania (11.7 million tons, + 19%) and Italy (6.2 million tons, + 9%) a higher yield is expected in Hungary than in the previous year.

In Hungary - according to the MoA - 6.4 million tonnes of maize were harvested by 16 October by harvesting 87% of the 898 thousand hectares of maize production area. But if we look more closely, Hungary can be divided into two parts. The eastern region and Tolna County seem to have finished harvesting, while the majority of western Hungary (Transdanubia) is still harvesting. This year's national average yield is 8.17 t/ha, which is 19% higher than the average for the 2013-2017 but it is still below the 8.558 t/ha record level of the 2016 year, but approaches it more and more. In the eastern counties, everywhere the averages approach the record yield in year 2016. It is expected that the average yield in Transdanubia will not be lower than in the previous years. Based on 898 thousand hectares of maize and an average yield of 8.2 t/ha, a surprisingly high of 7.36 million tons yield can be expected in Hungary this year. At least 2.5-3 million tons of this maize should be exported from Hungary between November this year and next summer.

The biggest problem is that the main transport way of the Hungarian maize , the Danube and almost all European rivers are unnavigable due to low water levels, and this will not change in the near future. Rail, road transport and offshore ships remain the only solution for transporting the crops. The most important issue for the coming period will be whether or not these goods can be smoothly delivered from Hungary and to which countries.